The economic crisis the world is very real, but we are still busy by changes in assumptions, the State Budget. One and a half months have passed away in 2009, either at the start of development and expenditure of funds or stimulus for economic growth muted slow explosion and the threat of termination of employment (PHK).
If previous years are so many higher-up scale-scale changes in the national budget is the fluctuation in oil prices, now spreading to almost all the macroeconomic scale. Last week, the government-run assumption hoist down export growth and economic growth.
Not be denied that the economic development of the world from day to day more bad. World Economic Outlook publication edition of the International Monetary Fund in October 2008 to include a projection of economic growth (output) of the world in 2009 was 3.0 percent. However, a month later corrected to be 2.2 percent. At the end of January, the IMF re-make the corrections, which is quite drastically, to only 0.5 percent.
Correction in line with world economic growth projections, the projected growth in world trade in 2009 was corrected, from 4.1 percent in October 2008 to be 2.0 percent in November 2008, and minus 2.8 percent, in January 2009. Comparison of the correction appears on the world trade growth is rather sharp correction in the economic growth of the world.
The government seems to respond to trends in economic growth and the deterioration of trade with the proposed export growth assumptions, edit and gross domestic product in the 2009 Budget. Export growth fell from 5.9 percent in early January to be 5 percent at the end of January and finally 2.5 percent in the first Sunday in February 2009. In fact, the government has the export growth of only 1 percent. If compared with the year 2008 export growth of 13.7 percent, the export performance of India this year will slip down very sharply.
If the world economy continue to experience further deterioration of the estimated nowadays, can we export growth will be even worse, say experienced negative growth. In other words, the export volume this year will be lower than last year. What with the government will then edit the target more economic growth?
In fact, the export decline will not affect economic growth, when at the same time imports are down proportionally. In fact, starting from the crisis of 1998 and the outbreak in China of late, more severe deterioration imports rather than exports resulting in a decrease in the improvement of trade balances and transactions running (current account). Furthermore, the decline of import growth more sharply than the export growth would provide a positive contrib. against economic growth.
Domestic economy
The majority of our exports are commodities and primary products manufacturing low value added. One of the salient characteristics of products such as the demand is less sensitive to changes in technical language or low income elasticity of demand. So, even if the world recession, export volume we will not down.
We do not export a lot of cars, electronic gadgets, and services that modern expensive. Thus rather, a kind of products that we import most. Because the demand for products is very sensitive to changes in income, we had to import products that will go down rather than more drastic decline in our exports. So, can the end result will be positive for economic growth and external balance, particularly the transaction running.
Concern that the export decline will lead to large waves PHK muted if we can maximize the potential market in the country. Focus on the three products, namely electronics, textiles and ready-made, and shoes. Specifically, out fight illegal imports. Electronic manufacturers' association that more than half the import of illegal electronic done. The portion is big enough that there is also alleged to import textiles, ready-made, shoes, and food and beverages.
Then, help whitewash the labor we find that living abroad with guaranteed legal protection. One more source of potential revenues for foreign exchange is tourism sector.
With improvement fundamental in this sector, at least we can still hope not decrease the number of visitors. Donations foreign tourists and foreign workers is very large role in the receipt of income and unemployment reducer.
It is, resistance we face economic sluggishness of the world can not a shadow of the numbers that later as long as we want this hard work.
Source: kompas.com
If previous years are so many higher-up scale-scale changes in the national budget is the fluctuation in oil prices, now spreading to almost all the macroeconomic scale. Last week, the government-run assumption hoist down export growth and economic growth.
Not be denied that the economic development of the world from day to day more bad. World Economic Outlook publication edition of the International Monetary Fund in October 2008 to include a projection of economic growth (output) of the world in 2009 was 3.0 percent. However, a month later corrected to be 2.2 percent. At the end of January, the IMF re-make the corrections, which is quite drastically, to only 0.5 percent.
Correction in line with world economic growth projections, the projected growth in world trade in 2009 was corrected, from 4.1 percent in October 2008 to be 2.0 percent in November 2008, and minus 2.8 percent, in January 2009. Comparison of the correction appears on the world trade growth is rather sharp correction in the economic growth of the world.
The government seems to respond to trends in economic growth and the deterioration of trade with the proposed export growth assumptions, edit and gross domestic product in the 2009 Budget. Export growth fell from 5.9 percent in early January to be 5 percent at the end of January and finally 2.5 percent in the first Sunday in February 2009. In fact, the government has the export growth of only 1 percent. If compared with the year 2008 export growth of 13.7 percent, the export performance of India this year will slip down very sharply.
If the world economy continue to experience further deterioration of the estimated nowadays, can we export growth will be even worse, say experienced negative growth. In other words, the export volume this year will be lower than last year. What with the government will then edit the target more economic growth?
In fact, the export decline will not affect economic growth, when at the same time imports are down proportionally. In fact, starting from the crisis of 1998 and the outbreak in China of late, more severe deterioration imports rather than exports resulting in a decrease in the improvement of trade balances and transactions running (current account). Furthermore, the decline of import growth more sharply than the export growth would provide a positive contrib. against economic growth.
Domestic economy
The majority of our exports are commodities and primary products manufacturing low value added. One of the salient characteristics of products such as the demand is less sensitive to changes in technical language or low income elasticity of demand. So, even if the world recession, export volume we will not down.
We do not export a lot of cars, electronic gadgets, and services that modern expensive. Thus rather, a kind of products that we import most. Because the demand for products is very sensitive to changes in income, we had to import products that will go down rather than more drastic decline in our exports. So, can the end result will be positive for economic growth and external balance, particularly the transaction running.
Concern that the export decline will lead to large waves PHK muted if we can maximize the potential market in the country. Focus on the three products, namely electronics, textiles and ready-made, and shoes. Specifically, out fight illegal imports. Electronic manufacturers' association that more than half the import of illegal electronic done. The portion is big enough that there is also alleged to import textiles, ready-made, shoes, and food and beverages.
Then, help whitewash the labor we find that living abroad with guaranteed legal protection. One more source of potential revenues for foreign exchange is tourism sector.
With improvement fundamental in this sector, at least we can still hope not decrease the number of visitors. Donations foreign tourists and foreign workers is very large role in the receipt of income and unemployment reducer.
It is, resistance we face economic sluggishness of the world can not a shadow of the numbers that later as long as we want this hard work.
Source: kompas.com
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