ecomic and monetery

IMPLEMENTATION OF BASEL II

2009-05-09T18:19:00.000-07:00

BASEL II AT GLANCE: IMPLEMENTATION OF BASEL II IN INDONESIA

Improved Standard for Capital Adequacy

A bank provides an intermediation function for funds received from customers. Failure of a bank will result in widespread impact affecting retail and institutional customers who hold funds at the bank. This could trigger multiplier impacts on the domestic and international market. The importance of the banking role demands proper regulation, in which the primary objective is to maintain customer confidence in the banking system. An essential part of the regulatory framework for the banking system involves the regulations governing bank capital, which functions as a buffer against losses.

In view of the importance of capital to banks, BIS issued a capital framework concept more commonly known as the 1988 accord (Basel I). This system was designed as a framework for measurement of credit risk and established a minimum capital standard at 8%. The Basel Committee designed Basel I as a simple standard requiring banks to disaggregate their exposures into broader categories reflecting debtor similarities. Exposures to customers of the same type (such as exposures to all corporate customers) are subject to the same capital requirements without taking account of differences in loan repayment capacity and specific risks associated with the individual customer.

More than a decade later, prompted by the evolution of banking worldwide and the reality that the best method for calculating, managing and mitigating risks would be different from bank to bank, the Basel Committee embarked on the initiative for revision of Accord 1988. The growing diversity and sophistication of products in the banking system led BIS to introduce improvements to the capital framework in the 1988 accord with the launching of a new capital concept known as Basel II. The first proposal was released in 1999 and was slated for implementation at end-2006. The revised capital accord—Basel II—is a comprehensive agreement that establishes a spectrum of more risk-sensitive capital allocation and incentive for improvements in the quality of risk management at banks. This was achieved by adjusting capital requirements to credit risk and operational risk, and introducing changes in calculation of capital to cover exposures to risks of losses caused by operational failures. In addition to the calculation of minimum bank capital, Basel II also provides for a supervisory review process to ensure that banks maintain a level of capital commensurate to their risk profile and promotes market discipline through disclosure requirements.

The objective of Basel II is to strengthen the security and soundness of the financial system by reinforcing the emphasis on risk-based calculation of capital, the supervisory review process and market discipline. The Basel II Framework is based on a forward-looking approach that enables improvements and changes to be made over time. In this way, the Basel II framework is able to keep pace with changes in the marketplace and developments in risk management.

At first glance, Basel II involves various complexities and preconditions that are difficult for banks to meet. However, the extra effort is well justified in view of the benefits to banks from more economic use of capital in covering their risks. Banks also benefit from the international recognition of the Basel II standards, which enables a bank intending to operate globally to be readily accepted on the international market, provided that these standards are met.

source: www.bi.go.id

BI-RTGS system

2009-04-03T23:50:00.000-07:00

In 2000, Bank Indonesia introduced stakeholders in the national banking system to a concept known as real time gross settlement (RTGS). The BI-RTGS system is a process for settlement of individual payment transactions that operates in real time. Using the BI-RTGS mechanism, member accounts can be debited (or credited) multiple times daily in keeping with payment orders and incoming payments.

Transactions ordered by sending members are transmitted to the RTGS processing centre at BI to be processed for settlement. If the settlement process is successful, the payment information will be forwarded to the receiving member in an automatic, electronic process. For settlement to be completed, certain conditions must be met. The member bank ordering the transaction must have sufficient account balance at the central bank. Why is this? The BI-RTGS system allows members only to credit the accounts of other members.

Under these rules, RTGS member banks must keep close track of account balances at BI to ensure availability of sufficient funds. If this requirement is neglected, an RTGS bank with insufficient liquidity during the settlement process will be placed in the queue. Until when? That’s right, until the RTGS member bank again has sufficient account balance to complete the transaction. BI-RTGS member banks are therefore required to maintain a sufficient level of liquidity (account balance).

There are at least three important reasons for BI to process settlement using the RTGS. First, literature reviews and results of empirical studies indicate an emerging awareness among central banks all over the world on managing the risks of Large Value Transfer Systems (LVTS). The BI-RTGS system has the capacity to reduce systemic risk. Systemic risk is the risk of default by one member in settling liabilities when due and payable that could also place other member banks in jeopardy. Under extreme conditions, the default could potentially trigger financial difficulties on a wide scale threatening payment system stability.

The second reason is that the RTGS system can reduce the incidence of float, and thus improve bank supervision effectiveness. Similarly, sound liquidity management in the banking sector will also support monetary policy effectiveness. Third, the RTGS system offers opportunity for integration with various payment system applications. Just one example involves money market and capital market trading under the Delivery versus Payment (DVP) rule. Alternatively, cross border payments can be processed with the Payment versus Payment (PVP) application.

The BI-RTGS system was launched with a number of objectives. For example, the BI-RTGS system would provide faster and more efficient, reliable and secure funds transfers among members. In addition, it would at least offer assurance of more immediate settlement. The RTGS system would display comprehensive information on the settlement account balances of members in real time. RTGS members would also be required to manage their liquidity along disciplined and professional lines. Combined with the benefits of the RTGS system, all this was envisaged as minimising settlement risks.

Before settlement by RTGS was introduced to the public, the other means of settlement commonly used was the clearing system. The methods employed in the clearing system differ widely from the RTGS. The clearing system employs net settlement, a process in which payments are settled at the end of a period in what is called offsetting of payment liabilities against claims. In this way, there is only 1 (one) claim or liability to be settled for the account of each bank.

However, use of the clearing system has its risks. At end of day, a bank could be carrying a substantial clearing deficit. Before the launching of the BI-RTGS system, both retail and high value payments were processed through clearing in amounts that at times would exceed the available account balance at BI. As a result, the bank would carry an overdraft. If the bank incurred a large overdraft, BI could face difficulties if the bank was unable to repay the overdraft on the next day. In contrast, the RTGS system employs the gross settlement method, in which each transaction is processed individually.

The BI-RTGS application is now in operation at all Bank Indonesia Regional Offices in Indonesia. The system has 150 members, of which 149 are banks and one is a non-bank institution. Indonesia is the eighth country in Asia to implement the RTGS system. Worldwide, the system is in operation in 30 countries
source: Bank Indonesia

Monetary Policy Review - February 2009

2009-03-10T04:26:00.000-07:00

The global economic crisis has had a serious impact, beating time with their original predictions. Recent developments indicate that almost all developed countries and some developing countries will see a significant contraction in GDP during 2009. The liquidity crisis is also expected to keep taking on world financial markets as a result of ongoing deleveraging process in some developed economies.

In response to these developments, Bank Indonesia expected that in 2009 the Indonesian economy will grow 4% -5% with a risk of downward bias in the event of damage more global. Slowing export growth will be the primary cause of weakening of economic performance in 2009. The main source of impetus for economic growth this year will be domestic demand, driven mainly by private consumption driven by rising levels of provincial minimum wage, the costs associated with the central government and regional social policies and expenditure with the elections by political parties. Together with this, will benefit from the investment of the Central Government for capital expenditures and the fiscal stimulus integral infrastructure construction, and capital expenditure of the Regional Government

With the global economy and commodity prices in decline, inflationary pressure in Indonesia has begun to ease, with this trend predicted to carry forward in 2009. If the downward movement in prices for commodities, subsidised fuels and rice maintains a favourable trend, there is a strong likelihood of achieving the lower limit of the 5%-7% inflation projection for 2009. There are growing indications of future easing of inflationary pressures. Weakening domestic demand, steeper decline in international commodity prices (foodstuffs and energy) and adequately maintained supply of energy and staples are among the factors supporting the easing of inflationary pressures. Furthermore, the stronger than expected plunge in international crude prices could pave the way for further cuts in subsidised fuel prices. This in turn could push down prices for fuel-related items, such as transport fares.

In related developments, the average rupiah exchange rate appreciated further in January 2009, despite some weakening near month-end. The rupiah came under short-term pressure from external conditions marked by uncertainty over the economic outlook in various regions and turbulence on global financial markets. Bank Indonesia will stay the course with stabilisation of the rupiah to avoid excessive forex market volatility.

Amid these economic developments and with inflationary pressures in decline, Bank Indonesia is focusing its energies on sustaining domestic economic growth. In so doing, Bank Indonesia is maintaining a close watch on inflation, macroeconomic stability and the medium-term stability of the financial sector. Bank Indonesia is pursuing a series of monetary policy actions to prevent further losses in the real sector.

In the decision of the Board of Governors’ Meeting in February 2009, Bank Indonesia lowered the BI Rate by a further 50 bps from 8.75% to 8.25%, the third such action since December 2008. Besides cutting the BI Rate, Bank Indonesia will continue to optimise the use of all monetary instruments at its disposal, such as Open Market Operations (OMOs), while maintaining stability on the rupiah and forex markets. Added to this, the monetary policy relaxation has been accompanied by Bank Indonesia actions to promote bank lending to productive sectors within the limits of prudential banking. This measure is expected to deliver a boost to the domestic economy that will prevent steeper decline.

Banking indicators point to response to the BI Rate cut in time deposit rates and lending, albeit on a limited scale. The downward movement of interest rates is also expected to ease supply constraints on bank loans. As for the business community, the lower interest rates are expected to businesses against pessimism about economic prospects.

The Indonesian banking system remains in solid form with the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and loans (NPLs) within safe limits. Various measures to reduce the segmentation in the banking sector liquidity have also shown results to be reflected in the renewed improvement in the flow of liquidity in the interbank money market, compared to a few months earlier.

Looking ahead, the Board of Governors of Bank Indonesia to maintain the course with a pro-growth, keeping a close watch on the macroeconomic stability. In addition to easing inflationary pressures will allow more room for rate cuts in the BI. Support for reducing the rate of Biscay also come from other actions for improving and strengthening the financial sector, including improvements to the system of banking supervision. Bank Indonesia will continue its efforts to expand the role of the banking sector as a source of financing companies and the momentum for economic growth.

Source: Bank Indonesia

export slump, assumption only?

2009-03-06T17:48:00.000-08:00

The economic crisis the world is very real, but we are still busy by changes in assumptions, the State Budget. One and a half months have passed away in 2009, either at the start of development and expenditure of funds or stimulus for economic growth muted slow explosion and the threat of termination of employment (PHK).

If previous years are so many higher-up scale-scale changes in the national budget is the fluctuation in oil prices, now spreading to almost all the macroeconomic scale. Last week, the government-run assumption hoist down export growth and economic growth.

Not be denied that the economic development of the world from day to day more bad. World Economic Outlook publication edition of the International Monetary Fund in October 2008 to include a projection of economic growth (output) of the world in 2009 was 3.0 percent. However, a month later corrected to be 2.2 percent. At the end of January, the IMF re-make the corrections, which is quite drastically, to only 0.5 percent.

Correction in line with world economic growth projections, the projected growth in world trade in 2009 was corrected, from 4.1 percent in October 2008 to be 2.0 percent in November 2008, and minus 2.8 percent, in January 2009. Comparison of the correction appears on the world trade growth is rather sharp correction in the economic growth of the world.

The government seems to respond to trends in economic growth and the deterioration of trade with the proposed export growth assumptions, edit and gross domestic product in the 2009 Budget. Export growth fell from 5.9 percent in early January to be 5 percent at the end of January and finally 2.5 percent in the first Sunday in February 2009. In fact, the government has the export growth of only 1 percent. If compared with the year 2008 export growth of 13.7 percent, the export performance of India this year will slip down very sharply.

If the world economy continue to experience further deterioration of the estimated nowadays, can we export growth will be even worse, say experienced negative growth. In other words, the export volume this year will be lower than last year. What with the government will then edit the target more economic growth?

In fact, the export decline will not affect economic growth, when at the same time imports are down proportionally. In fact, starting from the crisis of 1998 and the outbreak in China of late, more severe deterioration imports rather than exports resulting in a decrease in the improvement of trade balances and transactions running (current account). Furthermore, the decline of import growth more sharply than the export growth would provide a positive contrib. against economic growth.

Domestic economy

The majority of our exports are commodities and primary products manufacturing low value added. One of the salient characteristics of products such as the demand is less sensitive to changes in technical language or low income elasticity of demand. So, even if the world recession, export volume we will not down.

We do not export a lot of cars, electronic gadgets, and services that modern expensive. Thus rather, a kind of products that we import most. Because the demand for products is very sensitive to changes in income, we had to import products that will go down rather than more drastic decline in our exports. So, can the end result will be positive for economic growth and external balance, particularly the transaction running.

Concern that the export decline will lead to large waves PHK muted if we can maximize the potential market in the country. Focus on the three products, namely electronics, textiles and ready-made, and shoes. Specifically, out fight illegal imports. Electronic manufacturers' association that more than half the import of illegal electronic done. The portion is big enough that there is also alleged to import textiles, ready-made, shoes, and food and beverages.

Then, help whitewash the labor we find that living abroad with guaranteed legal protection. One more source of potential revenues for foreign exchange is tourism sector.

With improvement fundamental in this sector, at least we can still hope not decrease the number of visitors. Donations foreign tourists and foreign workers is very large role in the receipt of income and unemployment reducer.

It is, resistance we face economic sluggishness of the world can not a shadow of the numbers that later as long as we want this hard work.

Source: kompas.com

Garment exports doing well despite global crisis next year

2009-02-03T17:06:00.000-08:00

Thanks to investment worth around Rp 4 trillion (US$363 million), garment-making businesses are expected to grow by 11.4 percent by year-end, and another 10 percent next year.

Garments account for 60 percent of Indonesia's textile and textile products (TTP).

Garment exports are projected to reach $6.4 billion this year, from $5.82 billion in 2007, said Kurnia Saputra, a board member of Garment Partnership Indonesia, an initiative by the USAID-financed SENADA to help raise industry competitiveness.

Growth in garments will be higher than the forecast 8 percent increase in the total exports of TTPs, which will grow from $10.3 billion in 2007 to an estimated $10.81 billion this year, Kurnia said on the sidelines of a link-and-match meeting between garment producers and buyers held by SENADA last week.

Although several textile companies have had to lay off workers, garment makers have been doing well and have absorbed another 50,000 workers this year, according to Redma Gita Wirawasta, executive director of Indotextiles research center.

There are already more than 1 million workers in the garment industry.

"This (increase) was pushed by an increase in investment this year of Rp 4 trillion, which was the highest investment in the industry for the past five years," Redma said.

"This gives us optimism about next year's projection of garment exports, which will likely grow by another 10 percent," he said, adding that "there have been no layoffs in garment companies this year".

Major destinations of garment exports are the United States, contributing 26 percent, the European Union (12 percent), ASEAN (5 percent) and Japan (3 percent).

Indonesia's garments account for only 3 to 4 percent of the world's total, Kurnia said. "But we can strengthen our global position as an important garment industry player by pushing for greater compliance with global manufacturing practices."

Complying with good industrial practices such as meeting requirements for safety and working conditions will boost sales because international buyers will have no doubts about dealing with complying companies, he said.

Total sales of TTPs in 2008 are estimated at $16.25 billion, a slight increase from last year's $15.09 billion, with the domestic market absorbing around 33 percent of the whole.

Mukhtar Ahmed, vice president of OSG LiFung Indonesia, said that globally Indonesia was ranked ninth among TTP exporters and 11th among garment exporters.

Ahmed said that despite the current global crisis, the United States and Europe would remain major destinations for Indonesian garment exports, while countries in the Middle East and the former Soviet Union would act as buffer markets.

"The weaknesses of the Indonesian garment industry lie in communication and marketing and also in research and development," he said. (iwp)

Source: The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Mon, 12/15/2008 10:36 AM | Business

December 2008: Monetary Policy Statement

2009-01-22T04:38:00.000-08:00

During November 2008, inflationary pressure in Indonesia began to ease in keeping with the onset of domestic economic slowdown triggered by the impact of the weakening global economy and falling international commodity prices. For 2009, Bank Indonesia predicts a drop in inflationary pressure, with the inflation trend at the lower end of the 6.5%-7.5% targeting range. In the view of Bank Indonesia, the impact of the global crisis on the domestic economy began surfacing in Q3/2008 and will become more strongly entrenched in 2009. The global financial crisis has similarly hit performance in the Indonesian financial sector, as indicated by increased yields on Government Securities, plunging share prices and the weakening of the exchange rate. In response, the Board of Governors of Bank Indonesia holds the view of the necessity for monetary policy to maintain equilibrium between measures to stimulate business activity and other actions to ease the vulnerability of financial markets, while continuing to safeguard long-term macroeconomic stability.

Bank Indonesia is keeping a close watch on the global financial market turbulence and the related impact on the Indonesian economy. The present global phenomenon is believed to be a process of deleveraging that has led to tightening of global liquidity and in turn portfolio capital flight, including from Indonesia. Repricing by foreign investors in response to perceptions of mounting risk has led to a growing wave of capital outflows from emerging markets. Regional stock indices have plunged considerably, while yield levels are up on bond markets in some countries. The mass exodus of investor capital has put pressure on almost all world currencies.

All these processes have borne down heavily on the rupiah exchange rate. During November 2008, the exchange rate recorded average 13.8% depreciation, markedly steeper than the 6.5% of the preceding month. The depreciation has been accompanied by heightened volatility fuelled primarily by falling market confidence amid the tightening domestic supply of foreign currency. The pressure has also been evident in the Indonesian Composite Stock Index. Nevertheless, actions taken by the Government and Bank Indonesia in anticipation of further crisis developments halted further index decline. Analysed over the month, the stock index weakened only 1.2% to close at 1,241 points, representing dramatically reduced decline compared to 31.4% one month earlier.

In a similar vein, inflationary pressure has begun to ease. External developments and weakening domestic demand have contributed to softening domestic inflationary pressure. Volatile foods inflation was down significantly from the preceding month consistent with the ongoing decline in international commodity prices. Deflation also took place in administered prices. While the present situation has eased, Bank Indonesia sees the potential for heightened pressure in core inflation, due to the weakening of the rupiah. Nevertheless, this pressure has been offset to some extent by the fall in international commodity prices. Amid these developments, November 2008 CPI inflation was recorded at 0.12% (mtm), down from 0.45% in the preceding month.

Despite the turmoil on various fronts, the fundamentals of the Indonesian banking system remain sound. Key banking indicators, such as the CAR and NPLs, reflect stable, strong resilience. Banking liquidity, which had undergone some tightening, has begun to ease. Even so, banks are demonstrating greater caution in lending, due to the escalation in future risks brought on by the weakening of the economy in the real sector.

Looking forward, the external turbulence is expected to impact Indonesia’s economic performance. Economic growth is predicted to weaken in Q4/2008 despite the overall growth forecast for 2008 at about 6.1%. In 2009, growth is set to drop further. A steeper decline in the global economy marked by economic contraction in various countries is expected to have significant impact on export performance. Exports will come under even greater pressure, especially if international commodity prices continue to slide in the coming year. At home, reduced export earnings and the tightening of bank financing sources will weaken public purchasing power. Consumer lending is predicted to decline due to rising perceptions of debtor risk, coupled with the tendency for banks to maintain high levels of liquidity in a climate of uncertainty.

CPI inflation in 2009 is forecasted near the lower end of the projected 6.5%-7.5% range (yoy). Inflationary pressure is predicted to ease with support from significant slowing in domestic demand and forecasts of further decline in international commodity prices. This forecast for world prices are expected to offset the negative impact of the rupiah exchange rate, which is set to weaken further in 2009, thus keeping imported inflation from having significant impact on the inflation rate.

Against the background of these developments, Bank Indonesia will maintain equilibrium within the policy framework with actions to prevent further slowing in the real economy balanced by unswerving orientation to achievement of the medium and long-term inflation target. To this end, on 4 December 2008, the BI Board of Governors decided to lower the BI Rate 25 bps to 9.25%. This easing in the policy rate is expected to sustain domestic economic momentum amid the world economic slowdown. In the real sector, the interest rate cut is necessary to deliver a much needed boost to business confidence in the Indonesian economy in order to reduce unemployment. In the financial sector, the BI Rate cut will also ease vulnerability to shocks, and thus mitigate risks.

In addition, this policy will again be pursued through optimum use of other monetary instruments, such as forex market interventions to minimise rupiah exchange rate volatility. Bank Indonesia will keep a close watch and monitor global economic developments and make policy adjustments as necessary to safeguard economic stability and achievement of the medium and long-term inflation target.

Obama becomes 44th US president

2009-01-20T16:23:00.000-08:00

Barack Obama became the 44th U.S. president Tuesday, shattering American racial barriers as the first black leader of the nation he promised to free from the grip of its profound economic troubles and steer away from wars in two distant lands.

Before a crowd that swelled to more than 1 million on the National Mall, Obama assumed power over a country longing for change after former President George W. Bush's eight divisive years in the White House, an era that witnessed the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks, the beginning of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and an economic collapse not seen since the 1930s Great Depression.

"Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this, America - they will be met," Obama said in his first address to the nation as its new leader.

Speaking before the mass of humanity that spread across the nearly 2-mile (3-kilometer) National Mall from the Capitol toward the Lincoln Memorial, Obama recalled the words of George Washington, America's first president, and enjoined Americans against faint-heartedness "in this winter of our hardship."

"With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come," the new president said in his 18 1/2-minute inaugural address. "Let it be said by our children's children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God's grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations."

Immediately after the inauguration ceremony, Bush and his wife Laura boarded a helicopter alongside the U.S. Capitol, as they began their journey home to Texas. The new president and his wife walked them to the chopper - keeping with tradition - to see them off.

It was a day of high spirits - jarred by sudden concern about the health of Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, a legendary Democrat who is suffering from brain cancer. He was rushed from a post-inauguration Senate luncheon in honor of Obama. "This is a joyous time but it's also a sobering time," Obama said. "And my prayers are with him and his family and (Kennedy's wife) Vicki."

"It looked like a seizure," said Sen. Orrin Hatch, a Republican who said he was with Kennedy until they reached the ambulance.

Kennedy was taken to Washington Hospital Center, where he was reported conscious, able to talk and under assessment.

When the luncheon finished, Obama lead off the inaugural parade from the Capitol to the White House, paying homage to pioneers who paved the way for the nation's first black president.

To rousing cheers, the new president and his wife stepped out of their limousine to greet part of the enthusiastic crowd that has lined the parade route.

Re-enactors from a black Civil War regiment, World War II's surviving Tuskegee Airmen and Freedom Riders who battled for civil rights were following Obama's limousine down Pennsylvania Avenue.

More than 13,000 people from all 50 states traveled the1.5-mile (2.5-kilometer) parade route jammed with joyous onlookers since dawn. Among the marching bands and military units are acrobats and even a drill team pushing whimsically decorated lawn mowers.

Pre-inauguration polls show Americans believe Obama is on track to succeed and express confidence the new president can turn the economy around. But Obama has cautioned that recovery needs time, and that things will get worse before they get better.

As he moved on in his speech from some of the country's most difficultdomestic challenges, Obama promised the world a new America that listens to all voices. But he vowed to spare nothing to keep America safe, addressing terrorist foes directly.

"We will not apologize for our way of life, nor will we waver in its defense, and for those who seek to advance their aims by induing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken; you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you."

And to the larger Muslim world, he vowed to "seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe wh seek to sow conflict, or blame their society's ills on the West - know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy.

"To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extnd a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist."

Tuesday's ceremony was the culmination of a remarkable ascent for the 47-year-old Democrat, who moves into the Oval Office as the nation's fourth youngest president. In less than five years, he rose from a little-known Illinois state lawmaker to the naton's highest office, persuading Americans that despite his relative inexperience, he could turn around the economy, end the Iraq war and restore U.S. standing in the world.

A gifted, inspirational speaker, Obama raised the hopes of millions as he promised even before taking office to emphasize diplomacy, eek global solutions to climate change, reject torture and shut down the Guantanamo Bay prison.

Acknowledging the historic nature of his inauguration as leader of a nation with a deeply troubled racial past, Obama said:

"This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed - why men and women and childrenof every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent Mall, and why a man whose father less than sixty years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath."

The nation's 56th inauguration day began for Obama and new Vice Prsident Joe Biden with a traditional morning worship service at St. John's Episcopal Church, across Lafayette Park from the White House.

After the 45-minute service, the Obamas were welcomed to the White House for coffee. Bush and first lady Laura Bush greeted them at the North Portico, according to customMichelle Obama handed Laura Bush a square white box wrapped with a red ribbon.

Bush left a note for Obama in the top drawer of his desk in the Oval Office, following tradition. White House press secretary Dana Perino said the theme of the message - which Bush wrote on Monday - was similar to what he has sid since election night: that Obama is about to begin a "fabulous new chapter" in the United States, and that he wishes him well.

The festivities won't end until well after midnight, with dancing and partying at 10 inaugural balls.

Obama's election electrified millions across the globe with the hope that the new America leader would be more inclusive and open to the needs of people and governments worldwide, more collaborative and more inclined to attack problems with diplomacy than with military power.

Obama's presidency puts Democrats firmly in charge of Washington. They will control both chambers of Congress and the White House for the first time since 1994.

Though the new president faces monumental challenges, he should face an extended honeymoon as he takes over from Bush, who leaves Washington as one of the nation's most unpopular and divisive presidents.

The 43rd president's approval ratings, which soared after Sept. 11, plummeted over his handling of the Iraq war, his slow response to Hurricane Katrina and the economic meltdown.

Shortly after Obama became president, the Senate swiftly approved six members of his Cabinet, but put off for a day a vote on his choice to be secretary of state, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Democratic hopes to add Clinton to that list were sidetracked when one Republican senator, John Cornyn, objected, saying he still had concerns about foreign donations to the foundation headed by Clinton's husband, former President Bill Clinton.

by Steven R. Hurst , The Associated Press , Washington | Wed, 01/21/2009 12:25 PM | World

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/01/21/obama-becomes-44th-us-president.html

so good

2009-01-09T16:37:00.000-08:00

Indonesia's economy and the election So far so good

WITH only three months until parliamentary elections, Indonesia’s six-month-old campaign has moved up a gear. For once, thanks to the global economic slump, it as much about substance as about style and personalities. And, unlikely as it seemed six months ago, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s government can hold its head pretty high.

The data suggest the fourth-quarter slowdown in Indonesia was much less pronounced than elsewhere in South-East Asia. Economic growth for 2008 as a whole is likely to exceed 6%. Many other indicators are also robust. The 2008 budget deficit was 0.1% of GDP and the government has earmarked $3.5 billion to spend on tax breaks and infrastructure projects.

In late 2008 the currency, the rupiah, lost a fifth of its value against the dollar, but the slide has halted. The cost of insuring Indonesian government bonds against default has come down sharply. Inflation, still running at an annual rate of 11%, is falling, enabling the central bank this week to cut its benchmark interest rate by one-half of a percentage point, to 8.75%.

Most banks are healthy, thanks to radical reform after the Asian crisis of a decade ago. And in 2008 the country achieved rice self-sufficiency for the first time in 24 years. Manufacturing is starting to feel the heat but only 25,000 workers have been laid off since November. And, according to research by the Asia Foundation, an American NGO, the huge informal sector has yet to feel much of an impact of the crisis.

President Yudhoyono can certainly take some credit for all this. He courted unpopularity by raising the prices of government-subsidised fuel when oil was soaring last year, and has now been able to cut them twice. Measures have been taken to support the financial sector and the poorest in society, and his stimulus package will both offer tax incentives and finance additional infrastructure projects. Moody’s, a credit-rating agency, gave Indonesia a “stable” outlook in its annual report this week, expecting the authorities to manage the impact of the crisis competently.

Factors that have nothing to do with the president’s policies are also helping. Domestic demand accounts for two-thirds of GDP, so though Indonesia remains vulnerable to sharp falls in the prices of commodities such as coal and palm oil, collapsing exports will not hit it as hard as its neighbours. The lack of infrastructure development in recent years means a few billion dollars will have a much greater impact than it might otherwise have done.

The government, however, needs to get the funds flowing fast and it is bad at disbursing money quickly. It also needs consumers to keep spending. Here the signs are ambiguous. Many Indonesians are not savers by nature. Yet carmakers, for example, are predicting a 25% contraction in sales. Food producers are less gloomy.

However, Indonesia, which suffered worse than any of its neighbours in the crisis of the late 1990s, has not yet weathered this one. It is handicapped by the weakness of the rule of law, the poor investment climate (see article), labour militancy and creeping protectionism.

The elections pose another hazard: the extent to which government ministers are ready to put the country’s interests ahead of their parties’ electoral prospects is in doubt. And then there are the global unknowns that could wreak havoc. But Mr Yudhoyono is probably sleeping better these days than most of his regional counterparts; and better than he himself could have hoped just a few months back.

Source: http://www.economist.com/research/articlesbysubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=348879&story_id=12896757

Exports November 2008 Down 11% : Indonesia

2009-01-09T05:18:00.001-08:00

Export of Indonesia in November 2008 decreased 11.09% to U.S. $ 9.61 billion compared to October 2008. But Indonesia still has a surplus due to a decrease in imports far greater to 17.87% for November 2008. Compared with November 2007 the export decline in exports was only 2.36%. Meanwhile, non-oil exports in November 2008 down 9.24% to U.S. $ 8.17 billion compared to October 2008.

Exports decreased, but the percentage decline in imports was larger, so we still have a surplus. The cumulative value of exports in January-November 2008 of U.S. $ 128.09 billion, rising 24.17% compared to the same period last year. While cumulative non oil and gas exports reached U.S. $ 100.45 billion, rising 20.18% compared to the same period last year.

The decline in non-oil exports in November occurred in mineral raw materials of U.S. $ 232.2 million. Meanwhile, the biggest increase occurred in the export garment knitting is not so increased U.S. $ 50 million. For imports in November reached U.S. $ 8.72 billion, down 17.87% compared to October 2008. Oil and gas imports reached U.S. $ 1.31 billion or 15.02% of the overall value of imports, and non-oil imports of U.S. $ 7.41 billion or 84.98%. During January-November 2008 the value of Indonesian imports reached U.S. $ 120.97 billion.

Early indications strengthen purchasing power and increasing consumption

2009-01-08T03:40:00.000-08:00

The decline BI rate is now entering the stage with a reasonable BI Rate 50 basis points, from 9.25 to be 8.75 percent. BI Rate fast or slow BI Rate will come down to about 8 percent. BI rate decrease will be a decrease in interest rates encourage working capital credit and investment and consumption credit. This step was taken in the government, in the hope that all parties to start working avert the impact of the crisis in the country. Decrease in credit interest rate of consumption in turn will strengthen the purchasing power or consumption. Thus the demand for goods and services can be improved.

One impact of the crisis that will hold up to the front of the Termination of Employment Relations, as a result many companies experienced a decline of production capacity, followed dropped demand in the global market and domestic market

Of course the government's stimulus should be able to respond to potential Termination of Employment Relations, especially in this industry labor groups. This is because the number of workers reached a dozen million people and expected production should be absorbed in the domestic market. Therefore, it is also necessary stimulus you up purchasing power of the people. A decrease in fuel price policy and fiscal stimulus should be the form of monetary stimulus reduction BI Rate.

The signal Rupiah.

Position currency rupiah at the end of the year 2008, which is Rp 11,000-Rp 12,000 per U.S. dollar, while at the beginning of the year 2009 more powerful, which is located on the level of Rp 10,000-Rp 11,000 against the U.S. dollar. Fluctuation of the rupiah is still very dependent on global conditions. To that end, efforts are expected to have with all parties to continue to maintain the rupiah. Rupiah still depends on global conditions, but perhaps more significantly to the future. Rupiah value at this time is considered sufficient to sustain permanent import and export activities nationally. Although the export activity, the more influence the global demand declined.

The Theory of Market Equilibrium Is Wrong

2008-12-23T07:42:00.000-08:00

We are in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. The salient feature of the crisis is that it was not caused by some external shock like OPEC raising the price of oil. It was generated by the financial system itself. This fact - a defect inherent in the system - contradicts the generally accepted theory that financial markets tend toward equilibrium and deviations from the equilibrium occur either in a random manner or are caused by some sudden external event to which markets have difficulty in adjusting. The current approach to market regulation has been based on this theory, but the severity and amplitude of the crisis proves convincingly that there is something fundamentally wrong with it.

We are in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. The salient feature of the crisis is that it was not caused by some external shock like OPEC raising the price of oil. It was generated by the financial system itself. This fact - a defect inherent in the system - contradicts the generally accepted theory that financial markets tend toward equilibrium and deviations from the equilibrium occur either in a random manner or are caused by some sudden external event to which markets have difficulty in adjusting. The current approach to market regulation has been based on this theory, but the severity and amplitude of the crisis proves convincingly that there is something fundamentally wrong with it.

I have developed an alternative theory which holds that financial markets do not reflect the underlying conditions accurately. They provide a picture that is always biased or distorted in some way or another. More importantly, the distorted views held by market participants and expressed in market prices can, under certain circumstances, affect the so-called fundamentals that market prices are supposed to reflect.

I call this two-way circular connection between market prices and the underlying reality "reflexivity." I contend that financial markets are always reflexive and on occasion they can veer quite far away from the so-called equilibrium. In other words, financial markets are prone to producing bubbles.

The current crisis originated in the subprime mortgage market. The bursting of the US housing bubble acted as a detonator that exploded a much larger super-bubble that started developing in the 1980s when market fundamentalism became the dominant creed. That creed led to deregulation, globalization, and financial innovations based on the false assumption that markets tend toward equilibrium.

The house of cards has now collapsed. With the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the inconceivable happened: The financial system went into cardiac arrest. It was immediately put on artificial respiration: The authorities in the developed world effectively guaranteed that no other important institution would be allowed to fail.

But countries at the periphery of the global financial system could not provide equally credible guarantees. This precipitated capital flight from countries in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin America. All currencies fell against the dollar and the yen. Commodity prices dropped like a stone, and interest rates in emerging markets soared.

The race to save the international financial system is still in progress. Even if it is successful, consumers, investors, and businesses are undergoing a traumatic experience whose full impact is yet to be felt. A deep recession is inevitable and the possibility of a depression cannot be ruled out.

So what is to be done?

Because financial markets are prone to creating asset bubbles, regulators must accept responsibility for preventing them from growing too big. Until now, financial authorities have explicitly rejected that responsibility.

Of course, it is impossible to prevent bubbles from forming, but it should be possible to keep them within tolerable bounds. This cannot be done simply by controlling the money supply. Regulators must also take into account credit conditions, because money and credit do not move in lockstep. Markets have moods and biases, which need to be counterbalanced. To control credit as distinct from money, additional tools must be employed - or, more accurately, reactivated, since they were used in the 1950s and 1960s. I refer to varying margin requirements and the minimal capital requirements of banks.

Today's sophisticated financial engineering can render the calculation of margin and capital requirements extremely difficult, if not impossible. Therefore new financial products must be registered and approved by the appropriate authorities before being sold.

Counterbalancing the mood of the market requires judgment, and because regulators are human, they are bound to get it wrong. They have the advantage, however, of getting feedback from the market, which should enable them to correct their mistakes. If a tightening of margin and minimum capital requirements does not deflate a bubble, regulators can tighten some more. But the process is not foolproof, because markets can also be wrong. The search for the optimum equilibrium is a never-ending process of trial and error.

This cat-and-mouse game between regulators and market participants is already ongoing, but its true nature has not yet been acknowledged. Alan Greenspan, the former US Federal Reserve chairman, was a master of manipulation with his Delphic utterances, but instead of acknowledging what he was doing, he pretended that he was merely a passive observer. That is why asset bubbles could grow so large during his tenure.

Because financial markets are global, regulations must also be international in scope. In the current situation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a new mission in life: to protect the periphery countries against the effects of storms that originate at the center, namely the United States.

The US consumer can no longer serve as the motor of the world economy. To avoid a global depression other countries must also stimulate their domestic economies. But periphery countries without large export surpluses are not in a position to employ countercyclical policies. It is up to the IMF to find ways to finance countercyclical fiscal deficits. This could be done partly by enlisting sovereign wealth funds and partly by issuing Special Drawing Rights so that rich countries that can finance their own fiscal deficits could cede to poorer countries that cannot.

While international regulation must be strengthened for the global financial system to survive we must also beware of going too far. Markets are imperfect but regulations are even more so. Regulators are not only human; they are also bureaucratic and subject to political influences. Regulations should be kept to the minimum necessary to maintain stability.

By George Soros

George Soros is Chairman of Soros Fund Management, December 22, 2008

Source:http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2008/12/the_theory_of_market_equilibri.html

Businesses seek extension to tax deadline policy

2008-12-22T06:51:00.001-08:00

The Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) has requested the government to postpone a deadline to improve tax filing and undertake tax registration until March next year as businessmen are busier than ever coping with the impact of the global economic slowdown.

Kadin chairman Mohamad Suleman Hidayat said Sunday businesses were expecting the deadline to be extended because the global economic downturn had unexpectedly pushed most businessmen to focus on drawing up counter-measures.

"We have asked the government to delay the deadline for the sunset policy for another three months because of the (economic) crisis," Hidayat told reporters on the sidelines of a Kadin national meeting.

"All businesses are currently thinking of how to handle their own companies (amidst the crisis)."

As a result of a new tax law on general procedure late last year, the government has issued rules requiring all taxpayers to honestly report their taxes and comply with the existing regulations.

Under the new policy, often referred to as a "sunset policy", the government has also given potential taxpayers time to get a tax registration number and start to comply with the regulations.

The government has given one year in which it has waived administrative penalties for previous non-compliance in exchange for accurate tax reporting and registration before starting to impose stiffer sanctions on violators next year.

Taxpayers money is the largest single source of income to the state budget, accounting for about 70 percent of state budget revenue.

According to the directorate general of taxation, Indonesia only has about 6 million taxpayers in a population of 230 million people.

Hidayat argued it was difficult to comply with the sunset policy as it involved lengthy procedures to complete all the filings, including balance sheets.

He suggested the government should issue a regulation-in-lieu-of-law to allow a postponement of the sunset policy.

In response to Kadin's request, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the government would study how to make that possible.

"Well basically it's impossible for us to extend the registration period as it's already been stipulated in the law," she said.

"What is possible is an administrative loophole that may allow such treatment, and I'll try to look into that," she added.

Mulyani said the sunset policy had been a success as there were around 200,000 requests for tax file number recorded every day at the moment, as the present deadline expired at the end of the year.

The directorate general of taxation has planned stiff measures for those having no tax registration once the sunset period is over, including a new plan to raise overseas travel tax by more than double for those without tax registration numbers.

Source: Mustaqim Adamrah and Aditya Suharmoko , The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Mon, 12/22/2008 11:07 AM | Business

November 2008: Monetary Policy Review

2008-12-07T20:41:00.000-08:00

The Indonesia economy is still weathering the spillover effects of the global financial crisis. The fallout from the world economic downturn has borne down on the economic performance of Indonesia with impact exceeding original forecasts. Recent weeks have seen a realignment in various domestic macroeconomic indicators. The Indonesian economy is moving towards a new equilibrium. In regard to inflation, the slowing world economy will inevitably soften inflationary pressure from international prices for goods. For the most part, domestic inflationary pressure is easing. Nevertheless, Bank Indonesia is keeping a watch on future inflation risks that call for close monitoring. Faced with these conditions, Bank Indonesia stands by the importance of maintaining an appropriate monetary policy to strike a balance between achievement of the inflation target and medium and long-term economic stability.

Various economic indicators show that the global economic crisis has spread to Indonesia, affecting domestic economic performance. Economic growth is predicted to decline. Household consumption is forecasted to see slowing growth in tandem with weakening investment due to loss of external demand and the mounting risks from uncertainties in the world economy. Export growth is also predicted to enter a sluggish phase, while import growth will plateau. On the supply side, the key growth sectors of agriculture and industry are expected to chart reduced growth compared to the preceding quarter. However, the growth outlook for some sectors, such as transport and telecommunications and electrical power, remains strong.

Amid these multifaceted developments, inflation has remained the principal area of concern for Bank Indonesia. The various policies pursued by Bank Indonesia are directed at mitigating inflationary pressure in the medium to long term. Inflation in October 2008 reached 11.77% (yoy), down from the preceding month. Inflation eased mainly in response to lower volatile foods inflation and a deflationary contribution in the administered prices category. On the fundamentals side, slowing domestic demand and reduced pressure from imported inflation eased pressures in core inflation. Even so, Bank Indonesia is keeping a close watch on demand-pull pressures in inflation and the continued high credit expansion in the banking system. After taking account of the various factors containing inflationary pressure and mitigating risks, Bank Indonesia still predicts CPI inflation at end-2008 in the 11.5%-12.5% range.

During October 2008, the rupiah exchange rate underwent depreciation. Global sentiment has led to a shift among foreign investors to risk aversion. In the natural course of events, the outbreak of the global crisis has prompted investors to move their portfolios out of Indonesia, setting off a wave of capital outflows. Despite the still healthy condition of Indonesia’s fundamentals, this behaviour has triggered a weakening in the rupiah. In this, Indonesia is far from alone. Currencies across the region have been hit by exchange rate losses. Everywhere, the cause is the same: the spillover effect of global sentiment. Calculated as an average, the rupiah slipped 6.5% during October 2008 to a level of Rp 9,998 per USD. On the stock market, the Indonesian Composite Index also took significant battering from the contagion of the global financial crisis. Nevertheless, for the month as a whole, stock investors continued to book a net purchase.

In the face of the havoc wreaked by the global crisis, the Indonesian banking system remains in predominantly solid condition. Key banking indicators reflect strong resilience in the face of the world financial turmoil. Banking liquidity, which had tightened up in the early days of the crisis, is now more readily available. The various policies pursued by the Government and Bank Indonesia, such as relaxation of the reserve requirement, have contributed to increased banking liquidity on financial markets. This has afforded banks greater room for manoeuvre in conducting their business.

Following this varied developments, the Board of Governors’ Meeting convened on 6 November 2008 decided to hold the BI Rate at 9.5%. Besides employing the BI Rate, Bank Indonesia is optimising the use of all monetary instruments at its disposal, such as the Open Market Operations (OMOs), while maintaining stability on the interbank and forex markets. Monetary policy transmission will operate through movement in interest rates linked to the interbank money market rate, which represents the operational target of monetary policy.

Looking ahead, Bank Indonesia will maintain a close watch on emerging global risks that may influence inflationary pressure and macroeconomic stability. To this end, Bank Indonesia will keep working in close coordination with the Government to maintain a close watch on developments and outlook in the global, regional and domestic economy in order to secure medium and long-term economic stability.
Source: http://www.bi.go.id/NR/rdonlyres/A2C5FDE2-4C0D-486B-8317-8A3F03EBDF38/15108/MPRNovember2008.pdf

September 2008: Monetery Policy Statement Bank Indonesia

2008-12-07T20:37:00.000-08:00

Persistently high inflationary pressure in Indonesia during August 2008 was fuelled mainly by brisk expansion in aggregate demand. At the same time, pressure from high world market prices for energy, foodstuffs and commodities began to ease, although still demanding close vigilance. In response, Bank Indonesia sees the need to curb aggregate domestic demand within safe limits for achievement of the medium-term inflation target and economic stability in general.

The latest economic indicators point to rapid growth in aggregate demand fuelled by exports and private consumption. Investment has also forged ahead of the historical average. Robust domestic demand has fuelled soaring import growth, especially for raw materials and capital goods. In the medium to long-term, this import growth portends to benefit domestic economic growth. On the other hand, the Indonesian economy is daunted by the escalated risks in the global economy reflected in the persistent instability in global financial market conditions, slowing world economic growth and ongoing uncertainty in commodity prices. The global and domestic turbulence will strongly influence the outlook for Indonesia's economic growth and inflation in 2008 and 2009.

Within the broad constellation of economic developments, inflation will remain the primary focus of Bank Indonesia. In the implementation of its policy, Bank Indonesia is targeting actions to curb inflation. Inflation in August 2008 reached 0.51% (mtm), down considerably from 1.37% (mtm) in the preceding month with annual inflation recorded at 11.85% (yoy).
Accordingly, inflation for January-August 2008 to 9.40%, well above the 3.58% charted for the same period one year earlier. Analysed by influencing factors, the sustained high CPI inflation is driven primarily by non-fundamentals linked mainly to high volatile foods inflation. On the other hand, administered prices inflation was down with the diminishing impact of the hike in subsidised fuel prices and the minimum impact of the increase in bottled LPG prices. After factoring of the various risks and inflationary pressure looming to the end of the year, Bank Indonesia predicts CPI inflation at end-2008 in the range of 11.5%-12.5% (yoy).

In August 2008, the exchange rate maintained upward movement, despite slight weakening at the end of the month. The rupiah came under temporary pressure from external jitters over the impact of the global economic slowdown and fluctuation in commodity prices on economic resilience. Bank Indonesia took actions to stabilise the exchange rate to mitigate excessive volatility on the foreign exchange market.

In the Board of Governors' Meeting convened in September 2008, Bank Indonesia raised the BI Rate by a further 25 bps from 9.00% to 9.25% in the fifth such rate increase since May 2008. In addition to raising the BI Rate, Bank Indonesia will move forward with optimising the use of all monetary instruments at its disposal, such as use of Open Market Operations and stabilisation measures on the rupiah and forex money markets. The contractionary measures in Open Market Operations included an increase in the FASBI short-term deposit facility rate from 300 bps below the BI rate to 200 bps below the BI Rate.

Monetary policy transmission was reflected in across the board increases in all rates linked to the BI Rate. Since June 2008, the Overnight Interbank Rate, set as the operational target for monetary policy, has held stable at about the BI Rate. The overnight FASBI rate, which comprises the floor for movement in the overnight interbank rate, climbed to 7.25% from the previous 6%. In similar movement, the SBI Repo rate, representing the ceiling on O/N interbank rates, mounted to 12.25%. These interest rate movements were subsequently transmitted to deposit and lending rates in the national banking system. So far, transmission of the increases in the BI Rate to the financial market has operated smoothly.

However, on the stock market, relentless pressure on global financial markets dragged down the Indonesian Composite Index (IDX Composite) during August 2008. The IDX index losses resulted mainly from external turbulence arising from the major issues on global stock markets. Despite this, the IDX index was held back from further decline by the sustained
strength of domestic fundamentals.

Looking ahead, the Board of Governors of Bank Indonesia will continue to focus on mitigation of pressures on macroeconomic stability. The Board also envisages further actions to manage levels of demand while taking account of the impact of these actions on domestic economic growth. With the support of integrated policy, Bank Indonesia is confident that inflation in 2009 can be brought to within the 6.5%-7.5% range.
Source:http://www.bi.go.id/NR/rdonlyres/2A33C7DE-8E10-444F-AAFF-97B5781A8B19/14612/MPRSeptember2008.pdf

August 2008: Monetery Policy Statement Bank Indonesia

2008-12-07T20:12:00.000-08:00

In the Board of Governors : Meeting convened on Tuesday, 5 August 2008, Bank Indonesia decided to raise the BI Rate a further 25 bps to 9.0%. This decision was taken to reinforce the stability of the Indonesian economy and financial system and specifically to support the medium-term outlook for the inflation target.

In the view of Bank Indonesia, there is a continued risk of future inflationary pressure driven by the turbulence in world oil and food prices and pressure from domestic demand. This strong risk of inflationary pressure was a key consideration for Bank Indonesia in the renewed BI Rate hike in August. Nevertheless, the inflationary impact of the fuel price hike has eased. To reinforce monetary policy effectiveness, the decision to raise the BI Rate was taken in tandem with optimisation of other monetary policy instruments, such as control of exchange rate volatility and absorption of excess liquidity in Open Market Operations (OMO). Under this integrated policy, the targeted inflation of 6.5%-7.5% in the year of 2009 is regarded as achievable.

The 25 bps BI Rate hike in August 2008 is not expected to adversely impact economic activity in Indonesia. Various indicators point to continued robust domestic demand. Banking industry resilience remains strong, supported by the healthy operation of the intermediary function. Bank credit expansion is up at 31.6% (yoy) with non-performing loans (NPLs) having dropped to 4.08% (gross). Motor vehicle and cement sales are on a robust upward trend. In 2008, the Indonesian economy is forecasted to maintain vigorous growth on the strength of rising exports, private consumption and high government spending. Domestic demand is also bolstered by increased regional government expenditures and the launching of preparations for national elections in 2009.

Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in July 2008 reached 1.37%, bringing the annual rate of inflation to 11.90% compared to 11.03% in the preceding month. Inflation for January-July 2008 thus came to 8.85%, far above the 2.72% charted for the same period one earlier. After taking account of the various risks and inflationary pressure expected to carry through to the end of the year, Bank Indonesia forecasts CPI inflation at the end of 2008 within the range of 11.5%-12.5% (yoy). Alongside this, the balance of payments is projected to maintain a strong surplus insupport of exchange rate stability. At the end of July 2008, international reserves stood at USD60.56 billion, equivalent to 4.7 months of imports and servicing of official foreign debt.

Looking ahead, Bank Indonesia will consistently evaluate the outlook for the economy and inflation based on the latest available information in order to maintain an optimum monetary policy stance for the future.

Source:http://www.bi.go.id/NR/rdonlyres/EF2CA58A-169A-490C-AA75-3D0AF734E434/14579/MPRAugust2008.pdf

my news

2008-12-07T19:50:00.000-08:00

National: Government revises minister wage decree to meet workforce concerns

Politics: Vice President tells poll monitor body to prevent conflict

Terrorism: Government condemns Mumbai attacks Security; President orders ministers to maximize security over concerns related to global crisis

Law & order: High Court rejects appeal of prosecutor’s graft convictions

Health: Papua in grip of serious HIV/AIDS crisis, international aid on way

Economy: Range of new steps introduced to deal with effects of global crisis; Rupiah shows signs of stabilizing; Business briefs

Macro economy: Government lowers growth forecast to 5-5.5%

Investment: Actual foreign direct investment rose 53% to $13.95 billion in first 10 months

Reform; Government to set up institution to manage funds to support infrastructure financing

State concerns: Government looks for ways to minimize job losses, including tax incentives; Tourism numbers could jump by up to 6.2% in 2009

SOEs: Toll road operator PT Jasa Marga seeks $150 million to fund new projects

Private sector: Bakrie Group finalizes rescue plans, settles debt problems; Qatar Telecom increases offer to shareholders

Banks: Tax incentives to be offered to help acquisitions of smaller banks

Power: Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand may acquire stakes in power plants
Oil & gas; Gas distributor sees gas sales volume increasing

Mining: PT United Tractors to spend $45 million on two Central Kalimantan coal mines